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| 2004 saw the end of
the delayed end of the recession in the SPARC market which had started in 2001.
Most analysts had written off Sun and the SPARC market - so when I wrote
an article in April
predicting that Sun's revenue would start growing again in the 2nd calendar
quarter - I felt like a lone voice in the wilderness. Other IT editors and
analysts who talk to me from time to time for in depth SPARC market comments
were surprised - but held off from another round of Sun kicking articles for a
few months till Sun's results confirmed this. Although Sun's results from the 3rd quarter of calendar 2004 won't be reported till a month after this article is published - I expect them to confirm that the last 3 quarters in 2004 taken together will continue showing year on revenue growth. Also I expect that during 2005 - Sun's own revenue and that of the SPARC market will pick up growth to around 10%. It didn't feel like much of a recovery to most US Sun VARs. Authorized VARs were squeezed into ever smaller niches as Sun seemed to take more direct business. Suffering most in the US Sun market in 2004 were the gray VARs who were impacted by Sun's new Solaris licensing policies affecting remarketed Sun servers and Sun's third party maintenance schemes. The total number of Sun VARs in the US declined again by 10% in 2004 as companies went bust or quit the Sun business altogether. Many of the long time Sun VARs I spoke to were bitter about their experiences in the Sun market. And I got the impression that Sun's thrashing around with no clear Linux strategy and a poor SPARC performance upgrade path was a source of disbelief and frustration. How could a company this size be so stupid? One experienced Sun analyst commented - "Sun has a track record of screwing its partners. Yet despite that VARs, IHVs and ISVs rush to follow the latest Sun bandwaggon in the hope it will lead somewhere better. You would think they would know by now that even Sun doesn't know or control where it's going." In Europe the situation for the gray Sun market was a lot better. Two factors accounted for the different experience.
Fans of this saga will have to wait till the next series in 2005 - and should not be overly surprised if the first episode starts with Jonathan Schwartz waking up and saying that the open source statements were all "Just a dream." That's more likely to happen if Sun thinks it will get double digit revenue growth in 2005/6 anyway with its proprietary approach. For fans who were too young to see the early episodes of the x86 Solaris Saga we've got a brief history of the first 18 years in article:- Surviving the Solaris x86 Wars.. ...Later after publication of this article - The Register also took up the Sun dream theme in their spoof article Scott McNealy's Xmas dream. | |
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Pick of the Sun SPARC Solaris News Stories in 2004 | |
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January
2004 - 2004 was a breakthrough year for the SPARC notebook market. SPARC
notebooks, mostly used by the military and government markets, had previously
been priced out of reach of most commercial users's budgets with typical costs
being many times that for a desktop workstation. In 2004 we saw a sharp trend
of price onvergence between SPARC notebooks and Intel Architecture notebooks.
By dropping prices - manufacturers hoped to substantially increase the total
market size. New models and new VARs made notebooks one of the most dynamic
segments in the SPARC desktop market. February
2004- High end Sun SPARC users in the military and financial markets -
who had got tired of waiting for faster SPARC processors had been turning their
attention to solid state disks.
SSDs gave users application speedups of x2 to x 3 in the same way as the
unavailable faster SPARC chips. March
2004 April
2004 - after years of delays - Sun finally launched a new processor
range. May
2004 June
2004 July
2004 - after 3 years of declining revenues - Sun finally started the
process of recovery. As we'd find out in later quarters - this was more than
just an example of dead cat bounce. August
2004 September 2004 October
2004 | |
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November
2004 December
2004 |
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| ...Later:- when Sun
was acquired by Oracle in 2010 - I wrote this final article about the SPARC
market - SSDs
and Sun-Oracle... past failures / future challenges. But I've written hundreds of other articles about the SSD market - which is changing the future of storage in the enterprise. You can see more about SSDs on StorageSearch.com | |
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